Is today a good day to go kayaking?

How the kayaking score works

Kayaking is more sensitive to wind than many land activities because a headwind, crosswind or offshore wind can make steering and the return journey harder. GoodDayTo therefore uses dedicated kayaking caps rather than relying only on an averaged comfort score. A single limiting hour affects the whole kayak trip.

Rain across the selected trip

At least 0.2 mm total forecast precipitation across the selected trip, or a 60% hourly precipitation probability, caps the result at 45 and therefore NOT TODAY. At least 0.1 mm or 35% caps it at 70 and therefore WAIT. These thresholds keep a wet final hour from disappearing inside an otherwise pleasant average. Probability is not the same as rain amount, so the tool shows both where useful.

Wind and gust limits

Sustained wind of 15 km/h or gusts of 26 km/h prevent GO. Sustained wind of 22 km/h or gusts of 35 km/h cap the result at NOT TODAY. These are conservative planning guardrails for a general, unspecified paddler and sheltered-water plan—not claims that every route becomes safe or unsafe at a universal number. Wind direction, exposure, fetch, waves, craft type, load and paddler experience can change the real decision dramatically.

Daylight, fog and severe weather

Kayaking is treated as a daylight activity. Any selected after-dark hour receives the existing strong darkness cap. A fog signal now uses the stronger on-water visibility cap and produces NOT TODAY. Thunderstorms, freezing precipitation, dangerous heat, extreme cold and very strong gusts keep their shared hard caps and override otherwise comfortable temperature.

Which duration should I choose?

Choose one hour for a short local paddle where the launch and return are close together. Choose three hours for an ordinary outing that includes getting away from the launch. Choose five hours for a genuine half-day plan. The forecast window represents elapsed planning time, not distance, difficulty or a route calculation.

A five-hour request needs five continuous forecast hours. If only four usable hours remain, GoodDayTo does not quietly score four and label it five. Planner requests, saved routines, activity rankings and shared results all use the same duration rule.

A practical example

Suppose the first four hours are dry and calm, but the fifth hour carries 0.2 mm of forecast rain and a 60% probability. A five-hour kayak trip is capped at NOT TODAY because that late hour belongs to the selected trip. Switching to one hour may show a different weather verdict, but it does not prove a shorter route is locally safe. You still need enough time for launching, returning and handling delays.

Now suppose the trip is dry but one hour reaches 15 km/h sustained wind. The complete trip cannot receive GO and becomes WAIT. At 22 km/h sustained wind, the stronger cap applies. If a later full block stays below those limits, Better later can identify it without hiding the weaker hours.

What GoodDayTo does not measure

This forecast tool does not measure water temperature, current speed, tide state, swell, wave height, river flow, dam releases, locks, weirs, surf, offshore wind direction, water quality, ice, submerged obstacles, boat traffic, shipping lanes, local rescue coverage, launch access, permits or closures. It also does not know the stability of your kayak, your clothing, buoyancy aid, communication equipment, training, swimming ability, fatigue or group plan.

That limitation is deliberate and visible. GoodDayTo must never invent a water reading or imply that a nearby waterway, launch or hire facility exists. Local Fit can help you open relevant nearby map searches, but it does not verify facilities or conditions. A competent local source, harbour or waterway authority, marine or river forecast and on-site observation remain necessary.

Weather checks that belong beside the score

The RNLI kayaking and canoeing guidance says to check weather and sea conditions, obtain updates for longer outings and be ready to change or cancel an unfavourable plan. Its guidance also highlights tides and offshore winds, which GoodDayTo cannot determine from a single surface-wind number.

The National Weather Service explains that all thunderstorms produce lightning. A kayak has no enclosed cabin, so a thunderstorm signal is a strong stop in the shared model rather than a small comfort deduction. The U.S. Coast Guard life-jacket guidance is a useful reminder that favourable-looking weather does not remove flotation needs. Check the rules that apply where you paddle.

Before relying on GO

• Check the dedicated marine, lake or river forecast for the actual route.
• Check wind direction as well as speed; offshore winds can carry small craft away from land.
• Check tides, current, river level, releases, waves and local warnings where relevant.
• Wear suitable flotation equipment and clothing for the water temperature, not only the air temperature.
• Carry an appropriate means of calling for help and keep it attached or accessible.
• Tell someone the route and expected return time, and stay within the group’s skills.
• Use local authority, operator or organiser instructions when they are stricter than this forecast screen.

Better later and alternatives

If the current complete trip is WAIT or NOT TODAY, GoodDayTo searches later continuous blocks of the same duration. A calmer later window can appear as Better later. The result does not assume a route stays open and does not convert an unsafe water condition into a safe one. If paddling is unsuitable, related land activities may still have a useful weather window.