Is it good weather to fly a drone?

What this drone weather check actually decides

GoodDayTo answers one narrow, useful question: does the ordinary hourly surface forecast provide a reasonably calm, dry and visible window for a small consumer-drone flight? It examines every hour in the duration you choose. That matters because a pleasant launch hour is not enough when rain, stronger gusts, fog or darkness arrives before the planned landing.

The first result stays simple: GO, WAIT or NOT TODAY, the selected activity, the best practical flight window and one memorable line. The details below the answer explain the measured factors. A later window is suggested only when the same scoring model finds a meaningful improvement, such as easing gusts or falling rain risk.

How the complete-flight score works

The underlying hourly score starts with dry, mild and calm conditions. It subtracts for precipitation probability, measured precipitation, sustained surface wind, gust speed, a wide gap between average wind and gusts, and temperatures outside a broad generic range. GoodDayTo then evaluates the requested one-, three- or five-hour block as one continuous flight window. The average conditions matter, but the weakest hour and safety caps prevent one poor hour from being hidden by two good ones.

For an ordinary small consumer drone, the shared model uses deliberately conservative planning bands. Surface wind or gusts reaching 18 km/h or 30 km/h prevents GO and produces at best WAIT. Surface wind or gusts reaching 26 km/h or 42 km/h caps the flight at NOT TODAY. These are not manufacturer specifications, certified operating limits or legal thresholds. A particular aircraft may require much stricter limits, and exposed terrain can make a surface forecast optimistic.

Any forecast precipitation of at least 0.1 mm within the selected flight, or rain probability reaching 60%, caps the result at NOT TODAY. A 30–59% rain probability prevents GO even when forecast accumulation is still zero. That distinction keeps the language honest: a probability signal is uncertainty, while forecast precipitation means the weather service expects measurable water. Both deserve attention because many consumer aircraft are not designed for wet-weather operation.

Visibility, daylight and severe-weather caps

A fog or depositing-fog weather code in any selected hour caps the whole flight at 35/100. That is a NOT TODAY result because fog can compromise visual contact and orientation, and the broad forecast cannot prove that conditions at the launch site meet the rules. The tool also prefers daylight. If the selected flight enters darkness, its time cap prevents a casual GO result; night operations require separate equipment, competence and rule checks that GoodDayTo cannot perform.

Thunderstorm signals override attractive average weather and cap the score at 18/100. Freezing precipitation and snow also impose safety caps. These conditions are not treated as ordinary score deductions because a short severe-weather hour should not be averaged away. The same principle protects longer duration choices: selecting five hours genuinely evaluates all five hours.

What GoodDayTo measures

• Surface wind: the forecast close to ground level, shown for the whole selected window.
• Surface gusts: the highest short-duration gust forecast in the selected window.
• Rain: both forecast accumulation and the highest hourly precipitation probability.
• Weather code: used for thunderstorms, freezing precipitation, snow and fog signals.
• Daylight: used to favour an ordinary visible daytime operation.
• Temperature: screened only against a broad generic range, never presented as the limit for your battery or aircraft.

What the score cannot know

GoodDayTo does not know the make, model, mass, payload, propellers, battery condition, firmware, return-to-home settings or published limits of your aircraft. It does not model wind at 50 or 120 metres, local turbulence, cloud base, aviation visibility, Kp index, magnetic interference, satellite geometry, radio interference or air traffic. It cannot inspect the take-off area, spot wires, identify uninvolved people, confirm landowner permission or decide whether you can maintain visual line of sight.

It also does not provide legal advice or an airspace service. Requirements differ by country, operation and aircraft. In Europe, EASA says an open-category remote pilot needs current information about geographical zones, must check people and obstacles, keep the aircraft in visual line of sight and operate according to the manufacturer’s manual. The EASA remote-pilot responsibilities are a useful starting point. In the United States, use the FAA’s official airspace guidance. Elsewhere, use the national aviation authority for the place where you will fly.

A practical example

Suppose you choose a three-hour flight window. The first two hours show 8 km/h wind, 14 km/h gusts and no rain. The third hour rises to 18 km/h wind and 30 km/h gusts. The earlier version of this tool could make the calm first hour look more reassuring than the full plan deserved. The complete-flight model now caps that three-hour block at WAIT. If the final hour instead reaches 26 km/h wind, 42 km/h gusts or measurable rain, the block becomes NOT TODAY. Choosing a one-hour duration can still reveal a shorter calm slot, but only if that shorter plan is genuine.

Use GO, WAIT and NOT TODAY correctly

GO means the measured surface-weather inputs stay below the conservative caution bands for the complete selected duration. It is an invitation to begin—not skip—the formal pre-flight process. WAIT means uncertainty or moderate wind and gusts have reduced the margin, often with a better weather window later. NOT TODAY means at least one measured weather factor already crosses a strong guardrail. A pilot may apply stricter limits at any time; the tool should never talk a pilot into overriding an aircraft manual, local observation or official restriction.

A short pre-flight sequence

1. Read the result for the duration you actually intend to be outside, including setup and landing margin.
2. Compare the highest wind, gust, rain and temperature values with the exact aircraft manual.
3. Use the official aviation source to check airspace, geographical zones, NOTAMs or temporary restrictions and every authorization that applies.
4. Inspect the site for people, obstacles, terrain effects, visibility, launch and recovery space, and a safe alternate landing option.
5. Recheck the live conditions immediately before launch. If the site disagrees with the forecast, the site wins.